“人房地钱”联动，关键是实现住房精准投放丨李宇嘉专栏

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, primarily driven by young people and new urban residents [2][3] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing has decreased by 6.8% from January to October this year, but the decline is less severe compared to the same period last year [2] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing is increasing, with a notable rise in its market share, as it offers advantages such as lower total price and better location [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to October 2023, the transaction area of both new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The new housing market is increasingly catering to improvement needs, while the demand from young and new urban residents is shifting towards the second-hand housing market [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports that 15 provinces have seen second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales [2] Group 2: Policy and Supply Management - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to control new housing supply, optimize existing stock, and improve quality as part of a new phase in housing supply-side management [3][4] - The strategy of controlling new supply aims to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize housing prices, with new construction area declines narrowing to below 20% this year [4] - The focus on understanding housing demand changes across different demographics and regions is crucial for effective supply management, including the types of housing needed [4][5] Group 3: Quality and Demand Activation - High-quality housing supply is essential to stimulate demand, with a focus on improving not just new homes but also old and affordable housing [5] - The concept of "good housing" should be applied across various housing types, not limited to high-end properties, to encourage consumption and upgrade [5] - Efforts to enhance employment and income are necessary to boost consumer willingness and ability to invest in quality housing, creating a positive feedback loop between supply and demand [5]