印度突然撤销BIS认证！我国聚酯、PVC出口风向生变？

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government's sudden withdrawal of BIS certification for 14 chemical products, including PTA and PVC, is expected to significantly impact the polyester and PVC industries, potentially reviving export growth and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On November 12, 2025, the Indian Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) announced the immediate cancellation of BIS certification for PTA, MEG, PSF, FDY, POY, and PVC homopolymer, which had been in place for nearly two years [1][2]. - The BIS certification process for PVC has undergone multiple delays, with the original certification requirements announced on February 26, 2024, and subsequently postponed several times until the final cancellation in November 2025 [2]. Group 2: Export Impact - The implementation of BIS certification had a drastic negative effect on PTA exports from China to India, plummeting from 960,000 tons in 2022 to 380,000 tons in 2024, representing a decline from 28% to 8% of total PTA exports [3]. - Polyester exports, particularly for PTA and polyester filament yarn, were significantly affected, with monthly exports of polyester filament yarn dropping from over 70,000 tons in September 2023 to approximately 160,000 tons for the entire year of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the challenges in the Indian market, other Asian countries have shown increased demand, with China's total polyester exports reaching 10.23 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [4]. - The cancellation of BIS certification is expected to eliminate key barriers to entry for Chinese polyester products, potentially reversing the decline in PTA exports and providing support to the domestic polyester industry facing oversupply pressures [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that while the immediate impact of the BIS certification cancellation is positive, the long-term growth of polyester exports will still depend on overall demand in the Indian market and competition from overseas suppliers [6]. - For PVC, the cancellation is seen as a stabilizing factor for exports to India, although there may be a temporary decline in export volumes due to previous "export rush" phenomena and seasonal factors [6][7].