Micron Technology(US:MU) Ju Chao Zi Xun·2025-11-15 02:54Core Viewpoint - The ongoing surge in storage chip prices, driven by increased demand from data centers due to the AI model wave, is causing major smartphone manufacturers to delay their procurement plans for storage chips, with inventory levels critically low [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Smartphone Manufacturers - Major smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are facing inventory levels below two months, with some DRAM stocks even less than three weeks, leading to tough decisions on whether to accept price increases of nearly 50% from suppliers [1][4]. - The price increase in storage chips is expected to directly impact the retail prices of mid to high-end smartphones, with price hikes ranging from 100 to 500 yuan due to rising storage costs [5][6]. - Industry experts predict that the severity of the current memory price increase exceeds expectations, resulting in a "price storm" that will ultimately affect consumers [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply side is tightening, with major manufacturers like Samsung halting DDR5 DRAM contract quotes and reducing NAND flash supply to drive prices up [4]. - Samsung has lowered its NAND wafer production target for this year from 5.07 million to approximately 4.72 million units, while SK Hynix has reduced its target from 2.01 million to about 1.8 million units, a decrease of around 10% [4]. - Panic buying has begun among North American tech companies, with some suppliers already having their NAND supply for next year fully booked [4]. Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - The cost of storage chips, which is the second-largest expense in smartphones after processors, typically accounts for 10% to 30% of the total device cost, significantly influencing retail pricing [5]. - TSMC has notified key clients like Apple that prices for advanced chips below 5nm will increase by 8% to 10% starting in 2026, compounding the cost pressures on flagship models [5]. - The current memory shortage is described as the most severe in 30 years, with predictions of a 50% increase in NAND prices and potential doubling of DDR5 prices [6].