美联储降息预期降温引发全球市场震荡：黄金大跌、中概股承压，科技股泡沫隐忧加剧

Market Overview - On November 14, 2025, global financial markets experienced significant turbulence, with international gold prices dropping over 2% and the COMEX gold futures closing at $4084.4 per ounce. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.61%, with popular Chinese stocks like Futu Holdings and Xpeng Motors declining by over 5% [1] - The core trigger for this market shake-up was the Federal Reserve officials' hawkish signals, leading to a sharp decline in the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from nearly 70% at the beginning of the month to below 50% [1][3] Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The market had previously anticipated that the Federal Reserve would implement its third rate cut of the year in December due to weakening labor market conditions and slowing economic growth. However, multiple Fed officials expressed caution in mid-November, which became a key driver for market adjustments [3] - Consensus among officials emphasized "anti-inflation" and "preventing excessive easing." Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding stated that further rate cuts could entrench high inflation, while Dallas Fed President Logan highlighted the need for clear evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target before considering rate cuts [3][4] Economic Data Fragmentation - The U.S. government experienced its longest shutdown, leading to a disruption in the release of official employment and inflation data for October. Consequently, the Fed relied on private sector data, which indicated a mere 42,000 new jobs in October and a record high of 153,000 layoffs [4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, creating a dilemma for policy decisions. Continuing rate cuts could risk a rebound in inflation, while maintaining rates could exacerbate economic downturns due to a cooling labor market and declining consumer confidence [4][5] Market Reactions Precious Metals - The decline in rate cut expectations led to a significant sell-off in gold, with spot gold prices dropping from a high of $4200 per ounce to below $4100, marking a single-day decline of over 2%. COMEX gold futures fell by 2.62%, the largest drop since October [6] - Analysts noted that the classic logic of "interest rates and gold" returned, as the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold increased with high-rate expectations [6] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.61%, with major internet platform companies like JD.com, Baidu, and Alibaba seeing declines of nearly 4%. In contrast, the renewable energy sector showed resilience, with companies like Canadian Solar and JinkoSolar rising [7] - The adjustment in Chinese stocks was influenced by tightening Fed policies, increasing financing costs for companies reliant on U.S. dollar debt, and ongoing concerns about the regulatory environment between China and the U.S. [7] Technology Stocks - Concerns over AI stock valuations intensified, with Oracle's market value dropping by over $250 billion in the past month. Despite a slight rebound of 2.44% on one day, Oracle's stock had cumulatively fallen by 6.85% that week [8][9] - The high leverage associated with AI investments raised alarms, prompting a reassessment of tech stock valuations. Some funds shifted investments from high-valuation AI stocks to more stable sectors like semiconductors [9] Oil Prices - In contrast to the declines in gold and stocks, international oil prices rose, with U.S. crude oil futures increasing by 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel. This increase was attributed to geopolitical risks affecting oil supply, including attacks on key oil ports and tensions in the Middle East [10] - Despite OPEC's shift in outlook from supply shortages to oversupply, the ongoing production cuts by major oil-producing countries and declining U.S. oil inventories maintained a tight supply-demand balance [10] Future Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by high uncertainty due to ambiguous Fed policies, fragmented global economic data, and rising geopolitical risks. Investment strategies are shifting towards defensive positions and sectors with more predictable outcomes [11][12] - Recommendations include focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and areas with strong earnings certainty, such as renewable energy and semiconductor equipment, while avoiding high-valuation AI tech stocks and those dependent on U.S. dollar financing [12][13]