财长蓝佛安最新发声

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government will maintain an active fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to stabilize the economy and ensure people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for sufficient policy strength [2][3]. Fiscal Policy Strategy - The fiscal policy will focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, determining deficit rates and debt levels based on changing circumstances, and utilizing various tools such as budgets, taxes, government bonds, and transfer payments [2][3]. - The emphasis will shift from merely focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to ensure necessary spending levels [3][5]. Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in both domestic and international environments, including external instability and internal economic pressures [3]. - Despite challenges, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, with significant potential for long-term growth, although risks in certain sectors have not yet cleared [3]. Budget Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure growth rates from 2020 to 2024 are projected at 2.8%, 0.3%, 6.1%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, with a growth rate of 3.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The total budget for 2025 is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan [5]. Debt and Fiscal Space - China's government debt ratio is projected to be 68.7% in 2024, significantly lower than that of major economies and emerging markets, indicating substantial room for further borrowing [5]. - The central government has considerable borrowing and deficit space, allowing for future fiscal policy initiatives [5]. Targeted Support Areas - The fiscal policy will prioritize high-quality development, focusing on key areas such as modern industrial systems, technology, education, social security, agriculture, and environmental protection [5][6]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing support for major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing, increasing the proportion of government investment in public services, and supporting high-tech enterprises [5][6]. Policy Coordination - There will be an emphasis on policy coordination, ensuring that fiscal policies align with monetary, industrial, and regional policies to create a synergistic effect for high-quality development [6].