内部风向有变，美联储12月降息概率上演“过山车”

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, influenced by government shutdowns and inflation concerns, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about supporting a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [3][5]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks of prioritizing inflation stability over employment [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are currently four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about the current interest rate being closer to neutral rather than overly tight [6]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed unease about a potential rate cut due to the lack of official data caused by the government shutdown, warning against premature easing in the face of persistent inflation [6]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate given the uncertainty [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, indicating a diminishing likelihood of further easing unless significant economic changes occur [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, reflecting the internal divisions and inflationary pressures [8].