全球洞察｜诺奖得主关注“十五五”规划建议：中国推动经济转型的目标清晰、方式明确

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality development and increasing domestic consumption as primary goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a shift from reliance on investment and exports to domestic demand and consumption [1][2][3]. Economic Transition - The transition from export dependency to domestic demand has been recognized since the 12th Five-Year Plan, marking a long-term process that may span decades [2]. - The emphasis on Gross National Income (GNI) reflects a growing concern for income distribution among different social strata, aligning with the current economic realities in China [2][3]. - Historical growth in China was heavily reliant on external demand, but as the economy matures, the sustainability of export-driven growth is diminishing [2][3]. Innovation and Technology - The 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize self-reliance in technology, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system, and fostering a development model that integrates education, technology, and talent [3][4]. - The focus on technological innovation aims to boost productivity, which is essential for meeting domestic economic and social development needs [3][4]. Global Competition - The economic transformation is not optional for China but a necessary response to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap," necessitating a shift towards domestic economic reliance and service sector development [4][5]. - In the context of global competition, particularly in artificial intelligence, China and the U.S. are seen as leading players, with both countries having distinct advantages [5][6]. Multilateral Cooperation - The current U.S. administration's withdrawal from multilateral agreements has raised questions about the future of global cooperation, suggesting a need for a new multilateral system that coexists with the U.S.'s bilateral approach [7][8]. - Despite U.S. resistance to multilateralism, the consensus among most countries favors continued multilateral cooperation, indicating a potential shift towards a more complex and fragmented global trade system [8].