邓正红能源软实力：地缘风险推高波动率与原油溢价 形成心理层面的价格支撑

Core Insights - The geopolitical risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and Iran's seizure of an oil tanker have significantly increased oil's soft power, leading to a rise in international oil prices [1][2][4] Group 1: Geopolitical Events Impact - Ukraine's drone attack on the Novorossiysk oil port has disrupted the export of approximately 700,000 barrels of Russian oil and 1.5 million barrels of Kazakh oil daily, affecting about 20% of Russia's crude oil exports [1][3] - Iran's seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil transport, has heightened concerns over shipping safety in the region, injecting additional geopolitical risk premium into oil prices [1][3] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - On November 14, international oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate crude increasing by $1.40 to $60.09 per barrel (up 2.39%) and Brent crude rising by $1.38 to $64.39 per barrel (up 2.19%) [1] - The price formation mechanism has shifted from a simple supply-demand balance to one dominated by "rule reconstruction" and "expectation management," enhancing the influence of implicit rules (soft power) on explicit prices (hard power) [4] Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The events in Ukraine and Iran exemplify the activation of oil market soft power through three key dimensions: rule reconstruction, expectation management, and value innovation, collectively driving up international oil prices [4] - The soft power theory posits that the energy market's competition will increasingly focus on rule dominance, technological standards, and climate narratives, with geopolitical risks continuing to act as a catalyst for oil price movements [4]