美联储12月降息预期摇摆 国际金价震荡走高

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to geopolitical tensions and the unresolved issues surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, which are driving demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to create a strong foundation for gold prices due to persistent risk-averse sentiment [2]. - Global liquidity remains abundant, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will end its balance sheet reduction, while many developed countries' central banks are still in a rate-cutting phase, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks worldwide are maintaining a trend of gold purchases, providing stable buying support for the gold market [2]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown and Economic Implications - The U.S. government shutdown has ended temporarily, but core issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding healthcare subsidy provisions, which may sustain risk in the U.S. economy [3]. - The recent passage of a temporary funding bill by the U.S. House of Representatives marks a significant step in ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Market predictions for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have decreased to just above 49%, influenced by recent economic data indicating a weakening U.S. economy [4]. - Despite calls for a rate cut, recent positive employment data and the temporary end of the government shutdown may lead the Fed to maintain current rates while observing the impact of previous cuts [4]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the December rate cut are evident, with some officials expressing caution, suggesting that while a cut may not occur, a dovish stance could be adopted for future considerations [4].