向美国缴纳4500亿美元“保护费”？民进党承认，赖清德连任稳了？

Core Insights - Taiwan has become one of the first economies to negotiate with the U.S. following Trump's initiation of a "reciprocal tariff" war, with the potential for significant "protection fees" involved [1][3] - The Taiwanese government has committed to investing between $350 billion and $550 billion in the U.S., with an estimated average of $450 billion, which is equivalent to four and a half years of Taiwan's fiscal expenditure [3][5] Economic Context - Taiwan's GDP is approximately $800 billion, which means the "protection fee" it needs to pay to the U.S. is disproportionately higher compared to Japan's GDP of about $4 trillion and South Korea's GDP of $1.86 trillion [5] - The political motivations behind these negotiations include the DPP's (Democratic Progressive Party) strategy to rely on the U.S. for independence and the political considerations of Lai Ching-te, who is facing challenges for the 2028 elections [5][7] Defense Spending - Lai Ching-te has publicly committed to increasing Taiwan's defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2023 and has allocated NT$1 trillion for weapon procurement and research [5] - The Nationalist Party (KMT) has expressed concerns about Taiwan's ability to sustain such high defense expenditures, noting that even Israel, under constant threat, has never exceeded 5% of GDP in military spending [5][7] Political Implications - The economic outlook for Taiwan appears grim, as Lai Ching-te aims to significantly increase defense spending while also needing to allocate at least $350 billion to the U.S. [7] - Experts suggest that Taiwan may not have a viable opportunity for the 2028 elections, especially if the KMT wins the upcoming elections and Taiwan does not address the unification issue with the mainland [7]