我国进口原油市场结构及前瞻分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant role of crude oil in China's economy, highlighting the country's high dependence on oil imports and analyzing the trends and sources of crude oil imports over the past decade [1][2]. Group 1: Crude Oil Import Trends - From 2015 to 2024, China's annual crude oil import volume is projected to increase from approximately 336 million tons in 2015 to 553 million tons in 2024, representing a 1.65 times increase [2]. - The import volume is expected to exceed the historical peak of 564 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of about 3% in the first nine months of 2025 [2]. - The acceleration in import volume growth is attributed to rapid industrialization and urbanization, alongside the reform of the crude oil import quota system post-2015 [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Import Sources - The number of countries supplying crude oil to China has remained above 45, indicating a diversification in import sources [3]. - The median share of oil supplied by individual countries ranges from 0.15% to 0.50% of total imports, enhancing energy supply security [3]. - The concentration of imports has increased, with the top ten source countries' share rising from 83.28% in 2015 to 88.41% in 2024 [9]. Group 3: Major Import Sources - The top ten crude oil suppliers to China include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Angola, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, and Brazil, with Malaysia emerging as a significant supplier by 2024 [6][11]. - The import volume from Malaysia surged from 270,000 tons in 2015 to over 70 million tons in 2024, marking a 260-fold increase [11]. - Russia has become the largest supplier, with imports increasing by 24% in 2023, reaching 107 million tons, and is expected to maintain a significant share in the coming years [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future import landscape is expected to be stable yet dynamic, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Oman maintaining steady export levels due to their stable geopolitical situations [16]. - The geopolitical tensions affecting countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may lead to fluctuations in their export volumes to China, while countries like Brazil and Canada are likely to see increased exports due to rising production [17][18]. - China's energy strategy emphasizes the need for continued diversification of import sources to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical events [20].