经济学家刘元春：居民消费率过低，本质上是收入问题

Core Viewpoint - The core argument presented by Liu Yuanchun is that China's consumption rate is too low due to high forced savings and a low proportion of household income in GDP, necessitating a change in income distribution to stimulate consumption [1][3][14]. Group 1: Current Consumption Issues - China's final consumption rate is approximately 55%, significantly lower than the 80% typical in developed countries [3]. - The proportion of household consumption in GDP is only 39.9%, compared to 50%-55% in Japan, 64.6% in South Korea, and 68% in the United States [3][14]. - Administrative consumption accounts for 30% of total consumption, while private consumption is below 70%, indicating a structural imbalance [3]. Group 2: Income and Consumption Relationship - Low consumption rates imply low income levels, creating a cyclical relationship where low consumption leads to low income and vice versa [4][5]. - To improve consumption, it is essential to first increase income levels, establishing a positive feedback loop where higher income leads to increased consumption [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Consumption - The decline in consumption growth is not aligned with GDP growth, indicating insufficient overall demand [7]. - Uncertainty in the economic environment is a significant factor affecting consumption, alongside income issues [8][10]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions - Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for a more equitable income distribution to enhance household consumption, as the current distribution favors enterprises and administrative sectors [14][15]. - The household sector's share of national income is only 60.6%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the global average, while the enterprise sector's share is disproportionately high at 24.7% [14][16]. Group 5: Short-term Consumption Challenges - Liu identifies seven short-term challenges for consumption, including worsening consumption insufficiency, low consumer confidence, and a decline in household asset values [18]. - The estimated short-term consumption gap is around 6%, amounting to approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, with potential stimulus measures like trade-in subsidies capable of generating about 2 trillion yuan in consumption [18].