美联储鹰派表态打压降息预期，现货黄金、现货白银大跳水

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant sell-off in the spot gold and silver markets, with gold prices dropping sharply from a recent high [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - On November 15, spot gold fell below $4040 per ounce, reaching a low of $4031.82, marking a decline of nearly $180 from the previous day's high of $4210, with a daily drop exceeding 3% [2] - As of 9 AM, gold was reported at $4082.16 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [2] - Spot silver also experienced a significant drop of over 4%, falling below the $51 mark to a current price of $50.517 per ounce [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, a substantial increase from a month ago [2] - Conversely, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has plummeted from 94.4% to 45.8% [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for policy tightening, with Logan stating that it is difficult to support a rate cut in December without clear evidence of inflation decreasing or a significant cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Divergence in Fed Officials' Views - Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach regarding the December decision, while Musalem noted that current policy is closer to neutral [2] - Collins emphasized the necessity of maintaining interest rates, despite some officials like Milan advocating for a dovish shift based on data [2] - Daly reiterated the commitment to the 2% inflation target and stressed the need for more economic data to guide decisions [2]