【UNFX市场前瞻】美国政府重启后：关注经济数据补发、美联储政策与债市走势

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]