38万亿债务炸雷，美联储连夜急刹车，中国成最大赢家？

Group 1 - The total U.S. federal debt has officially surpassed $38 trillion, marking a significant increase from $37 trillion in just two months, which is the fastest rate of debt accumulation since the pandemic [1][3] - The U.S. government is incurring an average daily deficit of $22 billion, which translates to a debt level exceeding 128% of the U.S. GDP, far above the IMF's 100% safety threshold [3][5] - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion in 2025, consuming a quarter of the federal revenue and surpassing military spending [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve, under pressure, announced a 25 basis point rate cut and will halt its quantitative tightening program, marking a significant policy shift [8][10] - The Fed's decision to lower rates is not due to economic strength but rather a response to liquidity concerns in the financial system, as bank reserves have fallen below $3 trillion [13][17] - The internal division within the Fed reflects a loss of direction, with differing opinions on whether further rate cuts are necessary [19][21] Group 3 - China's decision to issue up to $4 billion in U.S. dollar sovereign bonds is a strategic move, not due to a lack of dollars, but as a financial maneuver to enhance its credit standing globally [23][25] - If China's dollar bonds can offer lower interest rates than U.S. Treasuries, it would signal stronger creditworthiness compared to the U.S., reshaping perceptions of global credit [27][29] - This strategy positions China as a "dollar mover," gaining control over dollar flows and potentially paving the way for the internationalization of the renminbi [33][35]