三波力量推动住房供需逆转

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the housing demand in Shanghai is experiencing a significant decline due to various demographic and economic factors, leading to an oversupply of housing in the future [3][4][12] - The first wave of influence is the continuous decline in the rigid demand for marriage housing, which has decreased by 56% since its peak in 2014, indicating a long-term trend that will last for 16 years [4][12] - The second wave of influence is the construction of 36 million affordable housing units nationwide during the 12th Five-Year Plan, which will significantly increase housing supply [5][12] Group 2 - The third wave of influence is the increase in housing supply due to the aging population, with an expected annual increase of 136,000 housing units from the deceased elderly population in Shanghai [6][7][12] - The article highlights that the potential buyers for the excess housing supply are limited, with only about 80,000 high-income individuals and new wealthy individuals expected to enter the market annually, which is insufficient to absorb the increased housing supply [10][11][12] - The overall conclusion is that the combination of these three waves of influence will lead to a significant imbalance in the housing market, with supply far exceeding demand in the coming years [12]