海澜之家(600398)2025Q3点评:主品牌稳健 期待新业务后续贡献成长

Core Viewpoint - HLA's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, HLA achieved revenue of 4.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 280 million yuan, an increase of 3.9% [1] - The main brand's revenue in Q3 2025 increased by 3% to 2.46 billion yuan, with expectations of positive same-store growth driven by direct sales [2] - The gross margin in Q3 2025 decreased by 1 percentage point, primarily due to the decline in gross margins from group buying and other brands [2] Group 2: Segment Analysis - Group buying revenue in Q3 2025 surged by 43% to 540 million yuan, benefiting from an optimized competitive landscape and customer expansion [2] - Other brands saw a revenue increase of 7% to 910 million yuan in Q3 2025, indicating stable growth [2] - The online channel revenue for the main brand decreased by 20% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the digital sales segment [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.19 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 12%, and 10% respectively [3] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same period are 14, 13, and 11 times, with a dividend yield of 6.4% in 2025 under a 90% payout assumption [3]