估值扰动再袭美股，英伟达最新财报能否成为转折点？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in technology stocks is influenced by concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, particularly as key economic data is delayed due to the recent government shutdown [1][4][5]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government has resumed operations after the longest shutdown in history, but critical economic data, especially October employment and inflation figures, may have permanent biases due to interrupted data collection [1]. - The NFIB's November Small Business Optimism Index is reported at 98.2, slightly below the expected 98.5 [3]. - The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to show a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, which is a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed that the fight against inflation is far from over, leading to a significant drop in the market's expectations for a December interest rate cut, from 66% to 41% [4][5]. - The cumulative expected rate cuts from now until the end of 2026 remain at three cuts, totaling 75 basis points [4]. Market Dynamics - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, has faced significant selling pressure, with major indices showing mixed results [5][6]. - The "Magnificent-7" tech stocks saw declines, with Tesla leading the drop, and Palantir Technologies, despite exceeding earnings expectations, faced concerns over its high price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 400 times [5][6]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable shift in market sentiment, with increased short positions in the semiconductor sector, indicating a bearish outlook among institutional investors and hedge funds [6]. - The market is experiencing a rotation, with healthcare and financial sectors performing well, while tech stocks are under pressure [6][7]. Upcoming Catalysts - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is expected to be a critical factor in determining whether the market can stabilize or if concerns over high valuations will intensify [7].