桐昆股份(601233)：长丝龙头持续向好

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a potential recovery in profitability despite lower sales figures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.8% [1] - For Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 23.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.1%, with net profit of 0.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 872.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.9% [1] Group 2: Investment and Segment Performance - The polyester segment showed slight improvement, with the company holding a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which reported a net profit of approximately 1.62 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 160.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 87.4%, resulting in an investment income of about 0.32 billion yuan for the company [2] - Excluding the contribution from Zhejiang Petrochemical, the net profit from the polyester and other segments in Q3 2025 was 0.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58.8% [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The demand for polyester filament continues to recover, with a cumulative apparent consumption of 26.72 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.59% [3] - The average operating rate for polyester filament in Q3 2025 was 89.3%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 1.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Polyester filament inventory remained at a reasonable level, with an average inventory days of 18.9 days in Q3 2025, a decrease of 0.8 days year-on-year, indicating a positive sales situation in the industry [3] Group 4: Profitability Outlook - The profitability of polyester filament remained stable in Q3 2025, with price spreads for POY, DTY, FDY-PTA, and MEG at 1,077 yuan, 2,153 yuan, 1,314 yuan, and per ton respectively, showing a year-on-year narrowing of 7.5%, 13.61%, and 19.28% [4] - If consumer demand improves, there is potential for widening price spreads in the polyester filament sector, which could further enhance the company's profitability [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see performance improvement with stable to rising terminal demand, with projected net profits of 1.8 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to EPS of 0.75 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.89 yuan, and PE ratios of 19.8X, 11.5X, and 7.8X respectively [5]