金晟富：11.16黄金价格下周涨跌怎么看？周一开盘黄金行情分析

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a decrease in expectations for a rate cut in December, which has resulted in significant market volatility [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline of over 3% on November 14, with spot gold reaching a high of $4,211.06 per ounce before falling to a low of $4,032.10, ultimately closing at $4,085.11, down $86.25 or 2.07% for the day. However, it still recorded a weekly gain of $84.20 or 2.1% [1]. - Analysts express concerns that gold's failure to break through the key resistance level of $4,200 may require a longer period of consolidation before attempting to challenge historical highs [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates significant downward pressure, with the critical support level at $4,000. If this level holds, gold may experience a period of consolidation; if it breaks, further declines to $3,930 or even $3,886 may occur [2][4]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the hourly chart, suggesting that if gold cannot regain levels above $4,150, further downward movement is likely. Short positions are recommended if resistance is encountered around $4,110 to $4,120 [4][5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include shorting gold on rebounds to $4,110-$4,120 with a target of $4,080-$4,060, and buying on dips around $4,035-$4,040 with a target of $4,060-$4,080 [5]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with weak physical demand for gold in major Asian markets, indicating that despite the price increase earlier in the year, buying interest remains subdued [1].