国信证券：有机硅单体厂计划协调减产 价格有望走入上升通道

Core Insights - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a high operating rate of 80.69% in January 2025, with a subsequent stabilization around 70% [1][2] - Domestic demand for organic silicon intermediates has shown significant growth, while export growth has slowed due to high base effects from the previous year [1] - The industry is expected to see a price recovery and positive average profits due to planned production cuts of 30% by single factories [3] Demand Side - Domestic consumption of organic silicon intermediates reached 1.5128 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [1] - Export volume for organic silicon intermediates was 420,100 tons in the same period, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.30%, reflecting a slowdown due to high base effects [1] Supply Side - The peak of capacity expansion has passed, leading to an improved supply landscape; domestic production capacity for organic silicon intermediates increased from 1.675 million tons in 2020 to 3.44 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.71% [2] - The industry maintains a high concentration of production capacity, with major players like Hoshine Silicon Industry holding a 26% market share [2] Product Pricing - The average price of DMC is currently at 12,500 yuan per ton, having increased by 1,000 yuan per ton recently; the industry is positioned at historically low price levels [3] - The planned production cuts are expected to help stabilize prices and potentially lead to a recovery in industry average profits [3]