野村中国首席经济学家陆挺：高质量发展须提振消费和清理存量债务

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is at a critical turning point, transitioning from reliance on external demand and real estate to a focus on domestic demand and structural optimization, with key tasks including debt cleanup, fiscal reform, and social security system improvement [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Over the past year, the Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, supported by government policies such as easing real estate purchase restrictions and a debt resolution plan worth 10 trillion yuan [2]. - Exports have maintained a robust annual growth rate of nearly 8% over the past five years, while new home sales have declined, indicating a separation of traditional growth paths [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The increasing competition between China and the U.S., changes in global demand structure, and rising trade barriers are expected to reduce export growth to an average of 3%-4% [2]. - The importance of domestic consumption is expected to rise significantly as the economy can no longer rely on external demand to offset the negative impacts of the real estate downturn [2]. Group 3: Consumer Dynamics - A key reason for insufficient consumer spending is the inadequacy of the social security system, which leads to low consumption capacity and confidence among low-income groups [3]. - Reforming the pension system is seen as a crucial step to boost consumption, with a proposal to increase the average monthly pension for 180 million retirees from 244 yuan to 500 yuan, requiring less than 0.4% of GDP [3]. Group 4: Real Estate Sector Challenges - The real estate sector poses significant challenges due to accumulated non-financial debts, including those between developers, construction companies, and homebuyers [4]. - The government is expected to focus on resolving legacy debts in the real estate sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a collaborative approach between central and local governments [4].