警惕！下周四，美国的“大日子”来了

Core Insights - The U.S. government has ended its longest shutdown, leading to a backlog of economic data that will be released starting next week, which is crucial for assessing the economic situation and informing the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1][2] - Key economic reports, including the September non-farm payrolls and third-quarter GDP, will be published, but the October CPI may be permanently missing due to data collection challenges [1][4] Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Labor will release the September non-farm employment report on November 20, followed by the September real wage data on November 21 [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce will publish the revised third-quarter GDP on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index data for October [2][3] Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The unprecedented data void caused by the 43-day government shutdown has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve regarding economic conditions [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has indicated that the absence of data may affect the committee's decisions, emphasizing a cautious approach in light of the data gaps [5] Challenges in Data Recovery - While the September employment data is expected to be released, the October data faces significant challenges, with warnings that some key indicators may never be published [6][7] - The collection of consumer price data is particularly problematic, as two-thirds of the price data requires in-person visits to stores, making it impossible to accurately report October CPI [7] Broader Economic Implications - The data void will impact social security payments linked to inflation and influence corporate hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season [8] - Businesses are already navigating uncertainties related to trade policies and consumer spending, and a return to normal data reporting may take several months [8]