美国大豆比巴西豆贵还加税，中国采购停滞不是违约，市场规律才是关键？

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers initially felt relief after China's commitment to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, with an average annual import of 25 million tons over the next three years, but this optimism quickly faded as actual purchases did not materialize [1][4] - The significant tariff disparity, with U.S. soybeans facing a 13% tariff compared to just 3% for Brazilian soybeans, has rendered U.S. soybeans uncompetitive in price, leading to a lack of large-scale purchases from China [3][4] - The U.S. administration's conflation of political promises with commercial realities has created a fundamental misunderstanding in trade relations, as China emphasizes adherence to WTO rules and market principles [4][9] Trade Dynamics - U.S. soybean prices must be $45 to $50 per ton cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for Chinese buyers to consider purchasing, but U.S. farmers are unable to lower prices due to high inventory and low market prices [3][6] - China's soybean inventory has reached a three-year high due to prior large purchases from South America, making it less likely for Chinese buyers to purchase U.S. soybeans at higher prices [3][6] - The U.S. agricultural sector is increasingly vocal about the need to decouple soybean trade from political issues, recognizing that stable market conditions are essential for survival [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Brazil is rapidly expanding its infrastructure, such as ports and railways, which enhances its competitive edge in soybean exports, while U.S. farmers face challenges in maintaining market share [6][7] - The potential for adverse weather conditions in Brazil could impact global soybean prices, presenting a possible opportunity for U.S. soybeans, but relying on such factors indicates a weakness in trade strategy [7][9] - China's diversification of soybean sources, including Argentina and Russia, is creating a more complex supply chain that reduces reliance on U.S. soybeans [7][9]