CDS复兴？“AI发债潮”重燃了市场的“次贷回忆”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in credit default swap (CDS) trading related to individual tech companies, reminiscent of pre-financial crisis conditions, as firms prepare to borrow substantial amounts for AI investments [1][2][4] - Oracle's CDS trading volume surged to approximately $4.2 billion in the six weeks ending November 7, compared to less than $200 million in the same period last year, indicating a doubling in the cost of related credit derivatives since September [1][4] - Major tech companies are entering the bond market with large issuances, including Meta Platforms' $30 billion bond issuance in late October, the largest corporate bond issuance in the U.S. this year, and Oracle's $18 billion bond issuance in September [1][3] Group 2 - Banks have become the largest buyers of single-name CDS, significantly increasing their exposure to tech companies, while stock investors are also seeking relatively inexpensive hedging tools against stock price declines [4][7] - The cost of purchasing protection against Oracle's default over the next five years is approximately 1.03 percentage points, equating to about $103,000 annually for every $10 million in bond principal [4] - Analysts suggest that the recent growth in single-name CDS trading may be temporary, driven by data center construction, and that current trading activity remains small compared to the anticipated influx of AI-related debt [7][8]