美联储重启“扩表”为时不远了，最快12月宣布？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential restart of its balance sheet expansion, with expectations for an announcement as early as December and implementation in January for a new round of Treasury purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the Fed is likely to soon expand its balance sheet to alleviate pressures in the funding markets, citing signs of a shift from ample to sufficient reserves [2]. - The Fed held a non-routine meeting with major Wall Street banks to discuss feedback on the usage of its standing repo facility, highlighting concerns over tightness in the U.S. money markets [2]. - Analysts warn that as the year-end approaches, market pressures may increase, as banks typically reduce balance sheet sizes for financial reporting purposes, potentially exacerbating cash tightness [2]. Group 2: Predictions on Balance Sheet Management - Citigroup predicts that the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet by December 1, with the most likely scenario being an announcement of increased Treasury purchases in January, starting February 1 [3]. - The probability of announcing bond purchases in December is considered similar to that in January, with recent easing in repo market pressures noted [3]. - Analysts expect the Fed to lower the interest on reserves by 5 basis points in December to help control repo rates within the federal funds target range [3]. Group 3: Monthly Purchase Requirements - Analysts suggest that the Fed only needs to conduct moderate net purchases of Treasury securities to maintain reserves at sufficient levels, estimating a monthly net increase of approximately $20 billion [4]. - This increase is necessary to keep reserves growing at about 5% annually, in line with nominal GDP growth and currency circulation [4]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Projections - Citigroup forecasts that the Fed's total assets will grow from $6.628 trillion in November 2025 to $7.068 trillion by December 2027, with U.S. Treasury holdings increasing from $4.192 trillion to $5.022 trillion [7]. - The Fed's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings are expected to decline from $2.067 trillion to $1.682 trillion during the same period [7]. - On the liabilities side, reserve balances are projected to rise from $2.887 trillion to $3.350 trillion by the end of 2027, while currency in circulation is expected to grow from $2.423 trillion to $2.548 trillion [8].