中泰证券：供需格局持续改善，航空向上周期开启

Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand dynamics in the aviation industry are continuously improving, indicating a positive trend for the sector moving forward [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - By the third quarter of 2025, the industry's existing supply is expected to continue to be digested, with aircraft utilization during peak seasons surpassing 2019 levels, suggesting a potential slowdown in supply growth [1] - The significant increase in international flight capacity, coupled with limited growth in domestic capacity, indicates an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape [1] Group 2: Pricing and Profitability Outlook - With high passenger load factors, there is an expectation for improvement in ticket pricing levels [1] - Current favorable conditions in oil prices and exchange rates are contributing to a trend of "not-so-slow" in the fourth quarter, with a substantial reduction in industry losses anticipated for Q4 2025 [1] - The industry is expected to release profitability elasticity in 2026, indicating a potential for improved financial performance [1]