43天停摆落幕，市场却反跌？

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, marking one of the longest in history, and was ended by a temporary funding bill signed by Trump [1][2] - The market reacted negatively after the shutdown ended, with tech stocks being sold off while defensive sectors rose, indicating a lack of confidence despite the availability of liquidity [2][3] - The shutdown caused a "soft pause" in the U.S. economy, affecting various sectors and leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [3][5][11] Group 2 - The temporary funding bill is seen as a "contradictory extension agreement," which helps break the cycle of uncertainty and restore confidence in the market [16][17] - The reopening of the government is expected to reactivate liquidity as businesses resume investment plans and consumer spending increases [20][21] - The U.S. Treasury's plan to gradually inject cash into the market and the Federal Reserve's end of quantitative tightening are seen as signals to support liquidity [22][23][24] Group 3 - Market optimism was short-lived due to two unresolved variables: cooling interest rate cut expectations and the potential for renewed government shutdown risks [30][31] - The expectation for a rate cut dropped significantly from over 70% to around 50% due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [36][37] - The temporary funding bill does not fundamentally resolve bipartisan disagreements, leaving the risk of another shutdown looming [41][42][46] Group 4 - The dynamics of the shutdown and reopening illustrate the importance of liquidity flow over mere availability of funds [50][51] - Investors are advised to focus on quality assets and long-term fundamentals rather than short-term market noise [62][70] - The core strengths of companies, such as technological advancements and cost control, remain intact despite political uncertainties [67][69]