Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-16 10:46Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing pressure due to a high base period for national subsidies, but the daily essentials segment is showing strong growth driven by effective synergy with the food delivery service. The company continues to optimize its delivery investments, leading to a trend of reduced losses. Increased investments in Jingxi and international business are expected to open up new market opportunities, indicating a positive outlook for the company's steady growth potential. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards, and the target price has been raised to HKD 195.39, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total merchandise revenue of CNY 226.09 billion, with the electronics segment contributing CNY 128.59 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9%. The high base from national subsidies has led to a noticeable decline in growth rates for the electronics segment, which is expected to continue into Q4 as the base for categories like 3C normalizes. The daily essentials segment generated CNY 97.51 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, primarily due to the synergy effects from food delivery services [2]. - The company reported a service revenue growth rate of 30.8% in Q3 2025, which accelerated from the high growth achieved in Q2. This growth validates the effective synergy between the food delivery service and the main platform, as the increase in main platform traffic significantly boosts third-party business [2]. Group 2 - The company has seen a reduction in losses from its food delivery segment, with Q3 2025 new business revenue reaching CNY 15.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 213.7%. The operating loss for this segment was approximately CNY 15.74 billion, with food delivery losses estimated at around CNY 13.5 billion, showing a slight reduction in losses compared to previous quarters. The company has adjusted its subsidy strategy, increasing the proportion of regular meals and optimizing the user experience structure [3]. - The company has increased investments in Jingxi and international business, with significant progress in the European market and a fourfold increase in self-operated transaction volume during the Double Eleven shopping festival. Despite the increase in losses from new businesses, the expansion into international and lower-tier markets is expected to positively impact the growth of the main platform [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to CNY 1,338.2 billion, CNY 1,415.1 billion, and CNY 1,498.1 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of CNY 27.1 billion, CNY 43.8 billion, and CNY 52.5 billion. The target market value is estimated at CNY 567.6 billion, corresponding to a target share price of HKD 195.39 [3].