停摆结束不是终点！美国关税国债齐上阵，全球经济要变天？

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown lasted for 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from 2018-2019 [3] - The temporary funding bill signed by Trump only allows government operations to continue until January 30, 2026, raising concerns about potential future shutdowns [5] - The shutdown resulted in significant economic losses estimated at $1.5 trillion, affecting 750,000 federal employees who were forced into unpaid leave [5][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The shutdown caused a staggering economic loss of $1.5 trillion, equivalent to the annual GDP of many countries [5] - Approximately 750,000 federal employees were impacted, with many relying on food assistance during the shutdown [5][3] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. faces a critical fiscal dilemma balancing military spending and social expenditures, often referred to as the "guns versus butter" debate [8] - Historical context shows that the U.S. was able to balance military and civilian needs during the Cold War, but this balance has deteriorated since the 1970s [8][7] Group 3: Budget Cuts and Reforms - Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk to cut 30% of the federal budget, claiming to save $205 billion, though these savings were largely exaggerated [10] - The budget cuts were selectively applied, with significant reductions in departments that primarily funded Democratic initiatives, while defense-related budgets remained largely untouched [10] Group 4: Global Economic Effects - Following failed budget cuts, the U.S. increased tariffs and issued more national debt to address fiscal shortfalls, which has raised global interest rates and financing costs [13] - Countries like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization [14] - The U.S. is pressuring allies to increase military spending, which may strain their social welfare budgets, forcing them into similar fiscal dilemmas [14]