Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-16 13:52Core Insights - A significant population migration trend is emerging in China, with over half of the population expected to flow into several core cities [1][3] - The attractiveness of these cities is driven by better job opportunities, industry policies, and public services, particularly in education and healthcare [4][8] - The potential for a rebound in housing prices is complex, influenced by both population influx and ongoing policy regulations [5][7] Population Migration - The migration is primarily from third and fourth-tier cities experiencing industrial decline to first and second-tier cities with abundant job opportunities [3] - Cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are seeing substantial net inflows, with Hangzhou reportedly gaining tens of thousands of residents last year [3][8] Housing Market Dynamics - The introduction of new policies, such as reduced down payments and interest rates, has provided a boost to the market, but high inventory levels in lower-tier cities may limit immediate price surges [7] - Cities with significant population inflows, like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, are likely to see stabilization and potential increases in housing prices [7][10] Future Urban Landscape - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen will continue to be primary population magnets, while cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Wuhan are emerging as new hubs [8] - The development of digital economies and rich educational resources in these cities is attracting talent and industries [8] Implications for Individuals - For individuals owning property in these core cities, the trend suggests a high probability of asset appreciation, while those without property may need to act quickly to secure housing [12] - The trend indicates a preference for urban living, with fewer individuals likely to leave major cities for smaller ones, as opportunities in larger cities remain more abundant [12]