What's Next After Alcoa's 40% Surge?

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa reported a net income of US $232 million in Q3 2025, more than double the US $90 million from the same quarter last year, contributing to a stock surge of approximately 40% over the last six months [2][7] Factors Driving the Increase - Stronger aluminum prices, a streamlined cost structure, and a strategic shift towards energy-efficient and critical-minerals sectors are key drivers of Alcoa's stock performance [7] - Aluminum prices have risen to around US $2,892 per tonne, indicating growing demand alongside limited supply, with a potential 40% increase in aluminum demand by 2030 [8] - Alcoa's revenue rose to US $2.995 billion in Q3 2025, up from US $2.904 billion a year prior, partly due to the sale of its joint venture with "Ma'aden" in Saudi Arabia [8] - The company has lowered its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to US $625 million and restructured parts of its portfolio, indicating a focus on operational efficiency [8] - Alcoa is investing in critical minerals and sustainable aluminum production, including a gallium-production facility in Western Australia [8] What's Next — Key Factors & Risks - Alcoa's anticipated aluminum production for the full year is projected to be between 2.3-2.5 million metric tons, with alumina expected in the 9.5-9.7 million metric ton range [8] - The company faces approximately US $90 million in adverse impacts due to U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports, alongside risks from energy costs and fluctuations in alumina prices [8] - The aluminum industry is cyclical, and any downturn in global demand or oversupply could compress margins [8] - Positive expectations are already factored into the stock price, leaving limited margin for error; execution challenges could lead to a sharp decline [8] - Strategic growth initiatives, such as green-smelting partnerships and critical-minerals assets, could unlock additional growth if objectives are met [8]