金价重大拐点浮现：下周或将复刻历史行情，市场已进入风暴眼

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with recent price fluctuations suggesting a potential historical bull market revival, driven by policy changes, record demand, and monetary policy shifts. Group 1: Policy Changes - A new tax policy effective from November 1, 2023, differentiates between "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," reducing the input tax for non-investment products from 13% to 6%, increasing costs for merchants [3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Global gold demand reached a record 1,313 tons in Q3 2023, with investment demand surging by 47% year-on-year to 537 tons, and gold ETFs seeing net inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion [4]. - In China, gold bar and coin sales increased by 19% year-on-year to 74 tons in Q3, marking the highest sales since 2013, with total sales for the first three quarters reaching 313 tons [4]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2, with China's reserves now at 2,304 tons, constituting 7.7% of its foreign exchange reserves [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30, 2023, marking the second cut of the year, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and makes it more attractive as the dollar weakens [5][6]. - Market expectations for another rate cut in December 2023 exceed 67%, with historical trends indicating that gold prices typically rise during Fed rate-cut cycles [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently testing the $4,000 level, with significant volatility observed, including a $500 drop in October. However, the combination of favorable policies, strong demand, and monetary conditions suggests a high probability of a historical price rally [7].