浙江自然(605080)：淡季关税扰动出货 Q4有望改善

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings with revenue of 133 million, a year-on-year decrease of 30.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37 million, down 40.6% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors and tariff impacts on customer shipments and order rhythms [1] Group 1: Short-term and Mid-term Performance - Q3 performance was significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a slowdown in orders and shipments, but there is potential for recovery as tariffs stabilize and customer inventory is digested [2] - The company is aligning with consumer trends, expanding from traditional outdoor mattresses to include water sports products and insulated bags, thus diversifying its business and leading the camping economy [2] - Water sports products are produced in Vietnam, effectively avoiding trade barriers and benefiting from tariff advantages, with a high certainty of order expansion based on existing customer relationships [2] - The insulated bag segment targets the rigid demand for food preservation in outdoor activities, leveraging partnerships with leading industry clients to quickly penetrate the market [2] Group 2: Global Supply Chain and Profitability - The company has established a robust supply chain network through bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Morocco, enhancing supply chain resilience [3] - The Vietnam base focuses on water sports products and is expected to show strong profitability as global outdoor sports market demand increases [3] - The Cambodian base is dedicated to insulated bags, with high scarcity in production capacity and potential for customer expansion [3] - Q3 gross margin was 28.23%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in expense ratios, indicating reduced scale effects on profitability [3] - The company anticipates improvement in profitability in Q4 as orders stabilize and new products gain traction, despite a stable overall expense ratio [3] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to tariff pressures on Q3 performance, the company has adjusted its earnings forecast, expecting revenues of 1.07 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.57 billion for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 7%, 24%, and 18% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 210 million, 270 million, and 310 million, with growth rates of 14%, 25%, and 18% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 13, and 11 times [4] - The investment recommendation remains a "buy" rating despite the anticipated challenges [4]