美银Hartnett：2026年“最佳交易”是“做空云大厂债券”，明年5月前市场不太可能“停止做多股市”

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett predicts that the best trade entering 2026 will be shorting the bonds of hyperscaler companies heavily invested in AI, as debt pressures from AI will become a significant vulnerability for these tech giants [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Conditions and Debt Risks - Hartnett's bearish logic is based on the changing financial conditions, noting that the past year saw 167 rate cuts by global central banks, but this momentum is expected to decrease to 81 cuts in the next year [2][4]. - The tightening of liquidity is leading to increased concerns about credit market strains and the financing of capital expenditures for AI, which have exceeded cash flow capabilities, resulting in widening bond spreads and credit default swaps (CDS) [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Disparities and Borrowing Costs - Hartnett highlights a core contradiction in the U.S. economy, where financial conditions have led to prosperity for Wall Street, but borrowing costs for Main Street remain "unaffordable," with various interest rates significantly higher than government borrowing costs [6][7]. - The disparity in borrowing costs is illustrated by the following rates: U.S. government borrowing at 4%, investment-grade companies at 5%, and credit card APRs reaching 20% [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite credit concerns, Hartnett believes that the macro narrative supporting the market remains strong, characterized by a "Goldilocks" scenario of lower rates and higher profits, with expectations of continued stock market preference until May 2026 [8]. - The date of May 15, 2026, is significant as it marks the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a more dovish stance, which may support stock preferences until then [8]. Group 4: Macro Trading Opportunities - Hartnett identifies macro trading opportunities, suggesting that tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and U.S. industrial policies will drive the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) towards an expansionary range [9][11]. - He expresses optimism for commodities and U.S. small-cap stocks, which are currently undervalued compared to the S&P 500 index, indicating potential for a rebound [11][13]. Group 5: Inflation and Long-term Bonds - Hartnett proposes a "reverse trade" regarding inflation, suggesting that if the U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) falls to 2%, it would benefit long-term U.S. Treasuries [15]. - He anticipates that the government may intervene directly in pricing to control costs in key sectors, which could negatively impact profit margins but create further upside for long-term bonds [15].