沪铝 警惕短线回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience upward price trends in the medium to long term due to strong demand and rigid supply, despite potential short-term price declines due to seasonal pressures in the consumption off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September and October, boosting sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has alleviated concerns regarding aluminum product trade barriers, contributing to a more optimistic macro environment [1]. - Political uncertainties in the U.S. have decreased, and economic data has not been as pessimistic as expected, further strengthening the positive macro outlook [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Recent weather conditions in Guinea and reduced shipments from Australia have led to a significant decline in bauxite inventory at ports, but shipments are expected to return to previous levels after the rainy season [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains stable due to sufficient raw material inventory, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.05% as of October, despite a slight decline [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearly fully utilized at 97.46%, with limited room for future capacity growth [3]. - Global electrolytic aluminum production is estimated at 72 million tons for 2024, with China contributing about 60%, while overseas production faces constraints from energy costs and infrastructure issues [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall consumption of aluminum shows resilience, although the average operating rate for aluminum profiles is significantly lower than in previous years [4]. - Demand in traditional construction sectors is weak, but strong demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage infrastructure supports consumption resilience [5]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The global aluminum market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, heavily reliant on China's nearly full production capacity [5]. - Short-term price pressures may arise as the market enters the traditional consumption off-season, following a recent surge in prices above 22,000 yuan/ton [5].