近期回调后，“AI卖铲股”的估值如何了？

Core Insights - The recent market pullback for "picks and shovels" companies providing infrastructure for the AI boom has not altered their strong performance supported by robust fundamentals this year [1][4] - UBS reported that despite the expansion in valuations of these industrial stocks, market expectations for their long-term growth remain relatively modest compared to the high expectations for tech giants [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - A UBS report noted that a portfolio of approximately 60 global AI-related industrial stocks experienced an average decline of about 5% recently, with some individual stocks dropping by 10-20% [1] - Year-to-date, this portfolio has achieved a return of 41%, significantly outperforming the broader market and nearly doubling the performance of major tech leaders [1] - The economic price-to-earnings ratio (Economic P/E) for this portfolio has expanded from around 25 times a year ago to nearly 35 times currently, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [3][12] Group 2: Fundamental Support - The strong performance of AI infrastructure stocks is underpinned by real demand and growth in business performance, driven primarily by capital expenditures from large tech companies [4][6] - Major tech firms like Meta and Alphabet have raised their capital expenditure forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of increasing investment in AI infrastructure [5][6] - The overall cash flow return on investment (CFROI) for this group of stocks has surged to over 10%, a significant improvement from the mid-single-digit levels seen in the early 2000s [7][10] Group 3: Valuation Expansion and Market Expectations - The valuation multiples for these AI "picks and shovels" stocks have expanded alongside strong stock performance and fundamental improvements [12] - Market pricing for these industrial stocks reflects a long-term average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for sales, which is more conservative compared to the 9% CAGR for major tech companies [14] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations among individual companies, with some like Bloom Energy (BE) priced for high growth, while others like First Solar (FSLR) face very low growth expectations [15][16]