从原料端到养殖端巧用套保锁收益

Core Insights - The analysis indicates that pig farming profits are more sensitive to feed price fluctuations, suggesting prioritization in hedging strategies, while egg production profits are primarily driven by the egg cycle, with feed hedging serving as a supplementary tool [1][4] Feed Price Correlation Analysis - High positive correlation exists between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (0.89 to 0.94), making them optimal for arbitrage pairing; corn also shows a strong correlation with soybean meal (0.64 to 0.78), indicating shared feed demand cycles [2] - Pig farming costs show weak to moderate positive correlations with corn and soybean meal (0.37 to 0.46 and 0.20 to 0.35, respectively), while egg production costs have slightly stronger correlations (0.37 to 0.64) due to shorter production cycles [2] - Profitability analysis reveals that pig farming profits have a moderate negative correlation with corn and soybean meal prices (-0.37 and -0.31), indicating that raw material prices are key variables affecting farming profits [2][3] Hedging Strategy Recommendations - The first strategy involves a "short farming profit" hedging approach, where selling pig futures and buying soybean meal and corn futures can mitigate losses from declining farming profits [5][7] - The second strategy enhances the first by adding a small long position in egg futures to cover risks associated with unexpected declines in pig prices, leveraging the consumption substitution relationship between eggs and pigs [8] - A "long feed cost + short farming profit" procurement locking strategy is proposed for traders to hedge against rising procurement costs while securing trade profits, regardless of price fluctuations [9]