港股年底大概率震荡巩固，明年依然有机会

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has performed well this year, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) achieving approximately 45% returns, although this may seem modest compared to higher-performing ETFs like the Communication ETF (515880) [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market initially rose this year, driven by the innovative drug sector that began gaining traction at the end of last year, primarily due to the sale of research and development results to overseas markets [1][2] - The "patent cliff" in the U.S. is causing original drug manufacturers to face significant profit declines as patents expire, leading to increased competition from generic drug manufacturers [1][2] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong has benefited from the ability to produce new drug patents, aligning with U.S. market needs, thus creating a favorable supply-demand dynamic [2][3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks several indices, including the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which has outperformed others due to its diverse industry coverage, including innovative drugs, telecommunications, and new energy vehicles [3] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index has lagged due to its lack of exposure to the pharmaceutical sector, which has been a significant driver of market performance this year [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The Hong Kong market has entered a consolidation phase since early October, while the A-share market continues to rise, indicating a slight lag in performance between the two markets [4][7] - The Hong Kong market is influenced by both domestic economic conditions and overseas liquidity, particularly from U.S. Federal Reserve policies, which can significantly impact market performance [4][6] - The current U.S. government shutdown and liquidity tightening are expected to limit short-term upward movement in the Hong Kong market, with a likelihood of remaining in a consolidation phase unless unexpected changes occur in U.S. monetary policy [6][7]