Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-17 02:48Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能) has seen its stock price rise over 4% in a bearish market, currently trading at 11.51 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.82 billion HKD, driven by record-high VLCC daily charter rates [1] Group 1: VLCC Market Dynamics - VLCC daily charter rates have reached a new high, exceeding 125,000 USD, with the VLCC TD3C-TCE index at 12.58 million USD/day, reflecting a 20% increase week-on-week and a 23% increase month-on-month [1] - The recent surge in VLCC rates is attributed to two main factors: increased production and the gradual realization of sanctions, leading to marginal benefits in both demand quantity and structure, while supply-side compliant capacity growth remains constrained [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - CITIC Securities (中信建投) reported that 80% of VLCC charter rates for Q4 have been locked in at 88,000 USD per day, suggesting that if the average VLCC charter rate for Q4 is assumed to be 100,000 USD per day, COSCO Shipping Energy's net profit for Q4 could range between 2 to 2.5 billion HKD [1] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy's stock on the Hong Kong market based on these projections [1]