降息预期降温，金价震荡调整，黄金ETF基金(159937)盘中交投活跃，机构：中长期上涨趋势不变

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, influenced by hawkish comments from multiple Fed officials and the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on economic data [2][3] - As of November 17, 2025, the Gold ETF fund (159937) has decreased by 1.82%, with a recent price of 8.91 yuan, while it has seen a cumulative increase of 3.50% over the past week [2] - The trading volume for the Gold ETF fund was 3.91 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.02%, and the average daily trading volume over the past week was 15.36 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The COMEX gold futures price is currently fluctuating around 4100 USD per ounce, reflecting market adjustments [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 55.6%, marking a significant decline from a previous 67.3% expectation [2] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a sell-off in precious metals and a retraction of most gains made during the week [3] Group 3 - The Gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 2.45 million yuan over the last ten trading days, indicating stable investor interest despite market fluctuations [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting that gold may test lower support levels in the short term while maintaining a long-term upward trend [3]