Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-11-17 02:59Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that concerns over Japan's stimulus scale exceeding expectations are leading to a return of fiscal risk premiums, putting pressure on long-term government bonds and the yen [1] Group 1: Fiscal Concerns - The market is increasingly worried that the Japanese government may abandon its commitment to annual budget balance and long-term fiscal goals [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that even if the final outcome is not as extreme as feared, market sensitivity to fiscal issues has clearly increased, suggesting a bumpy road ahead for any eventual easing [1] Group 2: Bond Market Impact - Japan's long-term government bond yields may rise significantly again, similar to earlier this year when fiscal concerns caused volatility in Japanese bonds that spilled over into global markets [1] - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds is just a few basis points away from a historical high, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield reached 1.72%, the highest level since 2008 [1] Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy - Recent yen weakness appears to have less impact on interest rate outlook, with signs of the Bank of Japan reducing its inclination to raise rates to curb depreciation [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that if economic conditions support it, the yen may have further weakening potential in the short term, with the yen briefly falling below the key level of 155 against the dollar [2] - However, they note that the upside for the dollar against the yen is likely to be limited by stronger verbal interventions and potential direct operational risks from Japanese officials [2]