美经济挺过政府停摆但并不乐观，美联储“救命稻草”还能抓多久？

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy has not significantly worsened during the longest government shutdown in history, according to Wall Street economists, who base their views on limited information, particularly weekly unemployment claims [1][3] - During the 43-day government shutdown, initial unemployment claims remained low, with estimates showing 218,000 claims in the last week before the shutdown and 228,000 in the most recent week [3][4] - Economists believe that the labor market has not experienced a sharp deterioration, despite a slowdown in hiring activity since spring [4][5] Labor Market Dynamics - The low layoff rate is crucial for the ongoing economic expansion, with the unemployment rate remaining below historical averages, previously at 4.3% before the shutdown [3][4] - However, hiring has nearly stalled, making it more difficult for job seekers, although low unemployment rates may still support consumer confidence and spending [4][5] - Structural changes in the labor market, such as the retirement of the baby boomer generation and a decrease in immigration, are contributing to the slowdown in hiring [5] Inflation Concerns - Inflation pressures remain high, with the annual inflation rate at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% and nearly double the average inflation rate from 2010 to 2019 [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may not yet be fully realized, and persistent inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during its December meeting [6][7] - The dual pressures of a tightening labor market and high inflation are affecting the economy, particularly impacting middle- and low-income households [6] Dollar Impact Analysis - In the short term, persistent inflation expectations may support the dollar, but medium-term pressures are accumulating, with the dollar's trajectory dependent on the interplay between inflation resilience and economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.08% to around 99.35, indicating market reactions to inflation and employment data [9]