国信证券：光通信持续高景气为AI算力互联铺路

Core Viewpoint - The AI arms race has entered its 2.0 phase, shifting focus from general-purpose GPUs to self-developed ASIC chips and interconnect technologies by CSP cloud vendors [1][2] Group 1: AI Development and Investment - Since the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 in 2023, major tech companies have significantly increased investments in large model development and computing center construction, with projected Capex for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta reaching $361 billion by 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 58% [2] - Domestic companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are expected to exceed 360 billion yuan in Capex [2] - NVIDIA, as a leading AI chip manufacturer, has faced supply shortages, while CSPs are increasingly investing in self-developed ASIC chips for better cost-performance ratios [2] Group 2: CSP Cloud Vendors' Self-Developed ASIC Chips - Google has been developing its TPU ASIC chips since 2015, with plans for the seventh generation and innovations in OCS architecture starting from TPUv4 [3] - AWS's Trainium chip is progressing to its third generation, with notable interconnect innovations using copper cables and plans for copper backplane connections in future clusters [3] - Meta has designed its MTIA chip and has a long history of data center architecture design, including the well-known CLOS architecture [3] - Other companies like Broadcom and Marvell are actively supporting global CSP cloud vendors in data center construction [3] Group 3: Silicon Photonic Modules - Silicon photonic modules integrate various optical components into a single chip, offering low cost, low power consumption, and high integration [4] - The application scenarios for silicon photonic modules include data center communication and telecom networks, benefiting from the demand for cost-effective solutions driven by AIGC transformations [4] - The market for silicon photonic modules is projected to reach $10.3 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 45% over the past five years, corresponding to nearly 18 million units sold [4] Group 4: Growth in Optical Communication Market - The demand for ASIC chips is expected to increase, with global shipments of 800G optical modules projected to reach 40 million units and 1.6T optical modules exceeding 7 million units next year [5] - The penetration rate of CPO is expected to reach 50% by 2029, with the OCS market projected to exceed $1.6 billion [5] - The PCIe Switch market is anticipated to reach $5 billion, while the DCI market is expected to reach $28.4 billion [5]