Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a strong performance in early trading, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8.35% to HKD 62.3 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 6.49% to HKD 56.75, driven by a significant rise in lithium carbonate futures prices and positive demand forecasts for the coming years [1][1]. Industry Summary - On November 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures surged over 5%, currently priced at CNY 91,740 per ton [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicts a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario with potential for price increases [1][1]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, supply may not keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding CNY 150,000 per ton or even CNY 200,000 per ton in the short term [1][1]. Market Dynamics - According to Wenkang Futures, the current market focus is on the demand side, with record high sales in electric vehicles and energy storage batteries driving bullish sentiment in lithium materials and raw materials [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is nearing its upper limit, with capacity utilization across the industry chain at peak levels for the year, resulting in a continuous supply shortage and the lowest recorded inventory days [1][1]. - Market expectations for accelerated inventory depletion have been fully priced in, and as the peak season progresses, the momentum for downstream raw material stocking may be nearing its end, suggesting limited upward price potential without sustained drivers [1][1].
碳酸锂强势突破9万元大关，港股锂业双雄齐上涨