Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-11-17 03:16Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn. By 2024, industry net profits are expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels, but some sub-industries are beginning to recover, with a 10.56% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first three quarters [1] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets for the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditures in the SW basic chemical sector and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. The "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aims to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with responses from sub-industries like pesticides, petrochemicals, and PTA polyester [2] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a mild recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand is driven by sectors such as new energy and AI, with key chemical materials being crucial for technological upgrades. The company is optimistic about the rapid increase in new energy storage capacity impacting iron phosphate and PVDF, AI industry growth affecting high-frequency and high-speed electronic resins, and the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts boosting demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3] Overseas Capacity Reduction - The European chemical industry is experiencing a wave of plant shutdowns due to high energy costs and aging facilities. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market. The domestic petrochemical industry chain is well-established, with many chemical products being highly competitive globally. In the context of accelerated overseas capacity reduction and anticipated demand recovery, the company believes that Chinese chemical enterprises will continue to increase their global market share, effectively alleviating excess capacity [4]