Group 1 - UBS report highlights that China Hongqiao (01378), as an industry leader, is expected to continue benefiting from a constrained supply and improving prices [1] - UBS raised its net profit forecast for Hongqiao by 11% for 2026 and by 16% for 2027 based on higher aluminum price predictions [1] - UBS reiterated a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao and increased the target price from HKD 28 to HKD 38.6 [1] Group 2 - The supply-side constraints are identified as a key logic, with a persistent widening of the supply-demand gap [2] - UBS estimates that global primary aluminum demand will maintain an annual growth rate of 4% from 2026 to 2027, while supply growth is expected to be only 1%-2% [2] - Domestic aluminum production capacity is strictly controlled, capped at 45.2 million tons per year, with current utilization exceeding 98%, nearing policy limits [2] Group 3 - Aluminum price forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with a 5% increase to CNY 22,000/ton for 2026 and a 7% increase to CNY 23,000/ton for 2027 [3] - The London Metal Exchange aluminum price forecast has also been raised by approximately 15%, driven by increased demand for aluminum as a substitute due to rising copper prices [3]
供应缺口支撑铝价上行 瑞银上调中国宏桥目标价至38.6港元