对冲基金CIO：每个人都在准备2026年，特朗普"不惜一切"赢中选，"人们觉得一季度暴涨，然后5月卖掉"

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the political cycle in 2026 will dominate market trends, with expectations of a strong rebound in Q1, followed by challenges after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May [1] - The consensus among multi-strategy hedge fund managers is that global growth expectations will be raised, with the U.S. nominal GDP growth potentially reaching 5% or higher due to fiscal stimulus boosting demand [1] - Demand-driven growth is expected to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policy, leading to a potential sell-off pressure of 40-50 basis points on short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI is experiencing an immediate surge, while supply-side improvements from AI investments are projected to take years, typically around 10 years [2] - The overall supply capacity of the economy has actually declined in the short term due to labor market and immigration policy constraints [2] - Inflation expectations are no longer stable, and if inflation rises again early next year, it may exhibit self-reinforcing and expectation-driven characteristics [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 6% by early 2025 are prevalent, but a drop back to 4% has provided significant support for the market this year [3] - Investors are advised to focus on profit opportunities in 2026 rather than worrying about a potential disaster in 2027, as this year has already shown strong performance [3] Group 4 - The market consensus indicates a clear trading path: a prosperous Q1 followed by a test when the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office on May 15 [4] - The midterm elections on November 3 are seen as a critical juncture, with Trump likely to employ all possible means to secure a win, shaping investor positioning [4] - There is a notable shift in risk assessment, with risk assets expected to perform well for a period, but adjustments in interest rate expectations may occur as consumer conditions improve [4]