国信证券：白电内销短期承压但韧性依旧 外销出海有望逐季复苏

Core Viewpoint - The white goods sector is currently at a historical low valuation, with short-term pressures on domestic and foreign sales, but medium to long-term resilience is expected [1] Group 1: Domestic Sales - From January to September 2025, domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines grew by 8%, 2%, and 5% year-on-year, respectively, with a decline starting in September due to high base effects from national subsidies [2] - The pressure from national subsidy high bases is expected to peak in Q4 2025 and Q2 2026, with growth rates likely to gradually recover thereafter [2] - The air conditioning market still has growth potential, with over 30% of households yet to install air conditioning, while the washing machine and refrigerator markets remain stable with strong demand resilience [2] - Market concentration in the air conditioning and washing machine sectors has increased, with the CR3 in the air conditioning industry rising by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, and leading brands Haier and Midea continuing to gain market share [2] Group 2: Foreign Sales - In 2024, China's white goods exports are expected to grow significantly due to global high temperatures and expansion into emerging markets [3] - However, a noticeable slowdown in white goods exports is anticipated starting in Q2 2025, leading to relatively low bases in Q2 2026 [3] - As tariff uncertainties diminish and companies enhance their overseas production, marketing, and distribution, the export of home appliances is expected to continue contributing to growth [3] - The improving housing and appliance demand due to the global interest rate decline and rising air conditioning penetration in regions like Europe, driven by climate change, will provide a solid demand foundation for Chinese appliance exports [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The white goods sector is currently in a bottoming phase, presenting an opportunity for strategic investments [4] - Although domestic and foreign sales may face pressure in Q4 2025 due to high bases, improvements are expected in 2026, with a gradual narrowing of sales declines [4] - With the anticipated recovery in overseas demand and the continued contribution of proprietary brands to growth, the white goods sector is likely to return to a stable growth trajectory [4] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL, Gree Electric, and Hisense, are expected to achieve better-than-industry growth due to their strong resilience and increasing market share [4]