香港第一金早评 : 多重因素迭加引发市场恐慌

Group 1: Market Overview - The largest gold ETF globally held 1,044.0 tons as of November 14, with a reduction of 4.93 tons from the previous day, but a net increase of 4.80 tons for the month [1] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, with China advising citizens against traveling to Japan and expressing serious concerns over Japan's military actions [2] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to impact energy and military sectors, with Ukraine launching coordinated strikes and Russia responding with large-scale counterattacks [2] Group 2: Economic Developments - The U.S. government has ended a 43-day shutdown, and key economic data is expected to be released soon, including the non-farm payroll report and personal income data [2][6] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from 94% to 49% [2] - Recent trade agreements have been made, including a $350 billion investment deal between South Korea and the U.S., and a trade agreement between the U.S. and Switzerland that will reduce tariffs [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - For gold, the daily chart shows a narrowing BOLL channel and a KD death cross, while the hourly chart indicates a potential short-term upward movement [5] - Recommended trading strategy for gold includes buying on dips between 4,084.1 and 4,090.1, with a stop loss at 4,079.1 and a target range of 4,094.1 to 4,100.1 [5] - For silver, a similar strategy is suggested, with buying on dips between 49.95 and 50.55, a stop loss at 49.85, and a target range of 50.65 to 51.25 [5]